Some years ago, the distinguished
international-trade economist Jagdish Bhagwati was visiting Cornell
University, giving a lecture to graduate students during the day and
debating Ralph Nader on free trade that evening. During his lecture,
Prof. Bhagwati asked how many of the graduate students would be
attending that evening's debate. Not one hand went up.
Amazed, he asked why. The answer was that the economics students
considered it to be a waste of time. The kind of silly stuff that Ralph
Nader was saying had been refuted by economists ages ago. The net result
was that the audience for the debate consisted of people largely
illiterate in economics and they cheered for Mr. Nader.
Prof. Bhagwati was exceptional among leading economists in
understanding the need to confront gross misconceptions of economics in
the general public, including the so-called educated public. Nobel
Laureates Milton Friedman and Gary Becker are other such exceptions in
addressing a wider general audience, rather than confining what they say
to technical analysis addressed to fellow economists and their students.
By and large, the economics profession fails to educate the public on
the basics, while devoting much time and effort to narrower and even
esoteric research.
The net result is that fallacies flourish in discussions of economic
policy issues, while the refutations of those fallacies lie dormant in
old books and academic journals gathering dust on library shelves. As
former House Majority Leader Dick Armey--an economist by trade--put it:
"Demagoguery beats data in making public policy."
Sometimes the fallacies are based on something as simple as a failure
to define terms accurately. Everyone has heard the claim that a
high-wage country like the U.S. loses jobs to low-wage countries when
there is free trade. When the North American Free Trade Agreement went
into effect a decade ago, there were dire predictions of "a giant
sucking sound" as American jobs were drawn away, to Mexico
especially.
In
reality, the number of jobs in the U.S. increased by millions after
Nafta went into effect, and the unemployment rate fell to low levels not
seen in years. Behind the radically wrong predictions was a simple
confusion between wage rates and labor costs.
Wage rates per unit of time are not the same as labor costs per unit
of output. When workers are paid twice as much per hour and produce
three times as much per hour, the labor costs per unit of output are
lower. That is why high-wage countries have been exporting to low-wage
countries for centuries. An international study found the average
productivity of workers in the modern sector of the Indian economy to be
15% of that of American workers. In other words, if you paid the average
Indian worker one-fifth of what you paid the average American worker, it
would cost you more to get the job done in India.
In particular industries, such as computer software, Indian workers
are more comparable, which is why there is so much outsourcing of
computer work to India. But virtually every country has a comparative
advantage in something, whether it is a high-wage country or a low-wage
country.
Those who complain loudly about how many jobs have been
"exported" to other countries because of international free
trade totally ignore the jobs that have been imported to the American
economy because of that same free trade. Siemens alone employs tens of
thousands of American, workers and Toyota has already produced its 10
millionth car in the U.S. Management guru Peter Drucker has said that
this country imports far more jobs than it exports and no one has
contradicted him. Indeed, those who are loudest in denouncing the
exporting of jobs totally ignore the importing of jobs.
Free international trade produces both the benefits of increased
productivity and the adjustment problems that all other forms of
increased productivity produce--namely, job losses in the less
competitive firms and industries. The typewriter industry was devastated
by the rise of the computer, as the horse-and-buggy industry was
devastated by the rise of the automobile. Histories of the industrial
revolution lament the plight of the handloom weavers when power looms
were introduced.
International trade has no monopoly on economic illiteracy. One of
the apparently invincible fallacies of our times is the belief that
President Reagan's tax cuts caused the federal budget deficits of the
1980s. In reality, the federal government collected more tax revenue in
every year of the Reagan administration than had ever been collected in
any year of any previous administration. But there is no amount of money
that Congress cannot outspend. Here again, the confusion is due to a
simple failure to define terms.
What Mr. Reagan's "tax cuts for the rich" actually cut were
the tax rates per dollar of income. Out of rising incomes, the country
as a whole--including the rich--paid more total taxes than ever before.
At the state and local levels, this confusion of tax rates and tax
revenues has led some local politicians to see higher tax rates as the
answer to budget problems, even though higher tax rates can drive
businesses out of the city or state, with adverse effects on the total
amount of tax revenues collected.
Price controls are another area where very elementary economics is
all that is needed to show what the consequences are: shortages, quality
deterioration and black markets. It has happened repeatedly in countries
around the world, over a period of centuries. Yet politicians keep
selling the idea of price controls and voters keeping buying it.
Many economic issues are complex, but sometimes a single fact will
tell you all you need to know. When you know that central planners in
the Soviet Union had to set 24 million prices--and keep adjusting them,
relative to one another, as conditions changed--you realize that central
planning did not just happen to fail. It had no chance of succeeding
from the outset. It is a wholly different ball game when hundreds of
millions of people individually keep track of the relatively few prices
they need to know for their own decision-making in a market economy.
Simple stuff like this is not very exciting for economists and there
is no payoff in one's professional career for clarifying such things for
the general public. The only reason to do it is that it very much needs
to be done--especially during an election year.
Mr. Sowell, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, is the
author, most recently, of "Basic Economics: A Citizen's Guide to
the Economy, Revised and Expanded," just published by Basic Books.