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President
Bush is jeopardizing America's long-term economic health by using
protectionist trade policy to further his quest for a second term in the
White House.
Problems with European trading partners over U.S. steel tariffs ruled
illegal under international commerce rules were exacerbated
substantially this week by an inexplicably ill-advised administration
decision to restrict clothing imports from China.
Mounting fears of an increasingly protectionist Bush regime helped
send the dollar's value to a record low against the euro currency
Tuesday and is believed to have discouraged much-needed capital inflows
into the U.S. economy during September.
The decision on China apparel curbs likely was motivated by clothing
industry complaints and concern about continuing charges by political
adversaries that imports were costing millions of U.S. jobs. In the case
of Chinese clothing, however, the potential political payoff in votes is
miniscule compared with the massive damage the president is risking to
the overall U.S. economy.
The products affected by the restrictions so far this year have
amounted to barely 5 percent of overall Chinese apparel sales in the
United States expected in 2003. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. textile
jobs ostensibly protected by the move also is relatively small when
viewed in the context of the action's possible harm to the entire U.S.
economy.
The administration seems to have forgotten that trade with China
isn't a one-way street. Americans enjoy inexpensive goods from China,
and the U.S. economy depends on China as a growing market for our
exports, which soared nearly 20 percent last year and made China our
fastest-growing export market.
Trade, however, isn't the only consideration. Picking trade fights
with commercial allies also threatens our ability to finance the growing
twin trade and budget deficits with foreign capital. China, for
instance, holds about $120 billion in Treasury securities. If it decided
to dump a significant amount of these holdings in retaliation for U.S.
hostile trade actions, it could roil global financial markets, force the
United States to pay higher interest for foreign borrowing to fund our
shortfalls, and thus short-circuit the economic expansion.
Protection fears also likely affected foreign investors in September,
when capital inflows from overseas plunged 90 percent from August, to
just over $4 billion. This was about $37 billion short of funding
September's trade shortfall and was the lowe
st capital inflow from abroad since 1998, when the near collapse of
the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund nearly required a bailout to
avoid an international financial crisis.
Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan probably had memories of 1998
on his mind when he warned Thursday of “creeping protectionism”
being a greater threat to the U.S. economy than financing the trade
deficit. Globalization makes it easier for the United States to deal
with its current account deficit, but Greenspan told a monetary
conference that protectionism could neutralize this safety valve.
The damage is minimal so far, but the world's early reactions to
presidential protectionism send a serious warning of how grave the
consequences could be if unbridled political ambition continues to trump
sound progressive trade policy at the White House.
Write to Jerry Heaster
c/o The Kansas City Star
1729 Grand Blvd.
Kansas City, MO 64108
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Send e-mail to jheaster@kcstar.com
or call (816) 234-4297
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