The ultimate finale to the centenary Tour de France – a final stage showdown between the two riders at the top of the overall classification – was threatened by the evenly matched leading pair for the first 39 kilometers of the penultimate stage. Only a matter of meters separated Armstrong and Ullrich during that time. And then Ullrich came tumbling down.

The advantage these two riders had over the rider who ultimately won the second fastest time trial in the history of the Tour, David Millar, was significant. When Ullrich lost control of his bike with 10 kilometers to race, however, prudence became the better part of valor.

Instead of risking his overall lead by attacking the rain-soaked course and attempting to win the stage, Lance opted to ease his tempo from the moment he was told of Jan’s crash. These two riders were on fire in the first two-fifths of the stage.

Armstrong and Ullrich were also racing on even terms. At the first time check they could not be separated. The first 15 kilometers were raced in 15 minutes, 42 seconds. Both Ullrich and Armstrong clocked that time at the first intermediate check. A GPS timing system which was mounted to the motorbikes which followed the riders who were separated by one minute and five seconds at the start of the stage showed that both had moments where one was ahead of the other.

Then the conditions came into play. Until Ullrich’s fall, the two riders at the top of the overall classification were well ahead of Millar. At the first check, Millar was 16 seconds slower. At the second time check – in Bouaye, at the 32.5km mark between Pornic and Nantes – Millar’s deficit had dropped: 15 seconds to the dominator of the 12th stage and 13 seconds to the man in the yellow jersey. The scene was set for a fun showdown for stage honors. But Ullrich made two mistakes today. He crashed out of his challenge for a second stage win in the 2003 event; and it’s highly likely that he did this because he chose to stay in bed and watch a video tape of the course instead of doing a reconnaissance ride as Armstrong did at 8.30 in the morning. How can you judge what pace is safe on a treacherous turn when you’ve only seen it on television?

Some questions emerge. Would Lance have slowed to coasting speed on the same round-about which caused Jan to crash had he not known of his three-minute man’s accident? Or did he ease his pace because he was aware of the hazard which lay ahead?

The reality is, Lance knew the surface was as slippery as a road could be. He was aware that the painted lines and arrows were to be avoided because they exaggerated the effect. And he was already in the lead of the Tour de France. He didn’t need to attack. He didn’t have to do anything other than ensure he stayed as close to Jan as possible. That’s all he did.

The pair finished the time trial behind both Millar and Tyler Hamilton. And they will return to their traditional places on the Parisian podium tomorrow. Lance won’t have to sprint for time bonuses and Jan won’t be rude enough to make him. Instead the American will hide cautiously in the peloton and stand on the podium as the fifth five-time champion. The German will be in second place for the fifth time. That’s one thing which is essentially certain.

What is yet to be determined, however, is the winner of the sprint classification. Instead of Robbie McEwen and Baden Cooke having to take a back seat behind the battle for overall honors – as may have been the case today if Ullrich was indeed victorious today – these two Australians will be the center of attention on the Champs Elysees. Only two points separates them. It’s a similar scenario to last year when Robbie won the stage, but Baden’s team manager, Marc Madiot refuses to believe his recruit will fail. The finale of the final stage was summed up by Madiot in four bold words after Cooke lost his lead at the end of stage 18: “Dimanche! Champs Elysees! Baaamm!” If Cooke has half of Madiot’s confidence we’re likely to see a second Australian sprint champion.

For today, however, Americans can breathe a sigh of relief. Germans and ponder what will be next year. And Brits around the world will continue to remind everyone that Millar is one of theirs.